This graph from SmartMLS (data through February 23, 2026) shows the 12-month rolling total of new listings — the number of homes newly put on the market each year across the entire Connecticut MLS. It’s the pure supply side of the housing market, smoothed over 12 months so you see the real trend without monthly spikes.
Here’s the story in plain English:
The Four Main Eras
- 2003–2007: The Listing Boom New listings surged from ~57,000 to a peak of ~94,000–95,000. Sellers flooded the market during the housing bubble.
- 2008–2013: The Sharp Drop Collapsed to ~70,000 by 2010, then bottomed around ~62,000 in 2012–2013. The market basically froze.
- 2014–2020: Partial Recovery Then Slow Slide Rebounded to ~78,000 in 2017, then gradually fell back to ~65,000 by early 2020. Never got back to the old highs.
- 2021–2026: The Historic Drought Dropped sharply from ~65,000 to ~40,000 by 2023–2024 — the lowest sustained level in the entire 23-year record. Slight recovery to ~42,500–43,000 by early 2026 (still extremely low).
Bottom line for readers: New listings have been cut roughly in half since the 2007 peak and are now ~45% below the 2017 level. Connecticut is in the middle of the longest, deepest supply shortage in modern history.
Cause-and-Effect: What Drove These Changes? (Tied to the Median Price Graph)
2003–2007: Listings Up → Prices Up Easy credit, low rates, and flipper/speculator frenzy encouraged owners to list and cash in. Effect: More homes for sale, but demand grew even faster → classic bubble and the price climb you saw in the first graph.
2008–2013: Listings Down → Prices Down Financial crisis hit. Homeowners went underwater (owed more than the house was worth), banks slowed foreclosures, and fear kept people from listing. Effect: Supply dried up at the same time buyers disappeared → prices crashed anyway, but the low listings prolonged the pain.
2014–2020: Modest Listings → Flat Prices Slower CT economy, stricter lending rules after Dodd-Frank, and some out-migration to lower-tax states kept new listings from recovering strongly. Effect: Balanced but sluggish market — exactly why prices stayed flat for years in the first graph.
2021–2026: Listings Crash → Prices Rocket
- Mortgage Rate Lock-In Effect (the #1 driver): Millions of Connecticut homeowners bought or refinanced at 2.5–3.5% rates in 2020–2021. With rates now 6–7%+, selling means a much higher monthly payment on the next house — so they simply don’t list.
- Low new construction: Labor shortages, high material costs, and zoning delays after COVID.
- CT-specific factors: High property taxes make moving expensive; many owners are “staying put.” Effect: When almost no new homes come on the market but buyers (including NYC transplants and remote workers) are still active, prices explode — exactly the “rocket ride” from ~$260K to $430K+ you saw in the sales-price graph. Recent 2025–2026 reports confirm this: inventory remains at record lows, pushing the median sale price to ~$425,000 statewide.
Recent data (Redfin, Lamacchia Realty, Realtor.com – early 2026) shows the same pattern: inventory is still tight but ticked up slightly year-over-year in some areas as the lock-in effect begins to fade for a few homeowners.
What This Means Today (February 2026)
- For sellers: Extremely low competition. Well-priced homes still sell fast with multiple offers.
- For buyers: Frustratingly few choices, but the tiny uptick in new listings (visible on the graph) is the first sign of possible relief.
- Looking ahead: If mortgage rates drop meaningfully, more locked-in owners may list — which could finally ease prices. If rates stay elevated, the supply drought continues and prices stay strong.
These two graphs together (median price + new listings) tell the complete story: When supply collapses and demand holds steady, prices soar. The 2008 crash was driven by too much bad debt; today’s boom is driven by too little supply.
The data is crystal clear — Connecticut’s housing market right now is a textbook case of extreme supply constraint.
