Simplified Analysis of Connecticut Homes for Sale (Active Inventory) (2003–2026)

Simplified Analysis of Connecticut Homes for Sale (Active Inventory) (2003–2026)

This graph from SmartMLS (data through February 23, 2026) shows the 12-month rolling number of homes actively listed and available for sale — the actual visible inventory buyers see on the market at any time across the entire Connecticut MLS. It’s the real-time “supply on the shelf.”  Data from Smartmls pdf

Here’s the story in plain English:

The Four Main Eras

1. 2003–2008: Inventory Explosion Started extremely low (~1,000–2,000) and rocketed up to a peak of ~32,000–32,500 homes for sale. The bubble years flooded the market with listings.
2. 2008–2013: High Plateau Stayed stubbornly elevated around 30,000–32,000 for five straight years. Even after the crash, inventory barely came down.
3. 2014–2020: Slow Bleed Gradual but steady decline from ~30,000 to ~20,000. Inventory was still historically high but trending lower.
4. 2021–2026: Historic Collapse Plunged from ~20,000 to a low of ~6,000–6,500 by 2024, then a tiny uptick to ~6,800–7,000 by early 2026. The lowest sustained inventory in the entire 23-year record.

Bottom line for readers: Active homes for sale are now roughly 80% lower than the 2008 peak and about 70–75% lower than 2017 levels. Connecticut is in the tightest housing market in modern history — fewer homes available today than at almost any point since 2003.

Cause-and-Effect: How This Connects to the Previous Two Graphs

2003–2008: Listings Boom → Inventory Surge → Prices Rose From the “New Listings” graph: sellers flooded the market (peaking at 94,000 new listings). Result: Homes for sale tripled. From the “Median Price” graph: prices still climbed because demand (easy credit) grew even faster → classic bubble.

2008–2013: Listings Dropped → Inventory Stayed High → Prices Fell New listings collapsed, but sales volume collapsed even harder (Great Recession, foreclosures, tight credit). Result: Inventory stayed near record highs for years. Effect: Oversupply crushed prices down to ~$230K.

2014–2020: Modest Listings → Slowly Falling Inventory → Flat Prices New listings recovered only modestly, sales were steady but not strong. Result: Inventory slowly drained from 30K → 20K. Effect: Enough homes to meet demand → prices went basically nowhere for seven years.

2021–2026: New Listings Crashed → Inventory Collapsed → Prices Rocketed From the “New Listings” graph: new listings fell to all-time lows (~40,000–43,000). Homeowners with 2.5–3.5% mortgages refused to sell (the “rate lock-in” effect). New construction lagged. Buyers (remote workers, NYC transplants, low rates 2020–2021) kept purchasing at a decent pace. Result: Inventory got sucked down to ~6,500–7,000. Effect: Extreme scarcity + steady demand = the explosive price surge from ~$260K to $430,000+ you saw in the first graph.

These three charts together tell one perfect story: New Listings (supply coming in) → determines Homes for Sale (supply available) → which directly drives Median Sales Price.

When inventory drops below ~10,000–12,000 in Connecticut, prices almost always accelerate upward. We’ve been well below that threshold since late 2022.

What This Means Today (February 23, 2026)

• Seller’s market on steroids: With only ~6,800–7,000 homes for sale statewide, well-priced properties still get multiple offers and sell in 10–20 days in most areas.
• Buyer frustration: Very limited selection, especially under $400K or in desirable towns.
• Tiny recent uptick: The slight rise in the last year (visible at the far right) matches the small increase in new listings — the first hint that the worst of the supply drought may be easing if rates drop further.
• Months of supply: At current sales pace, this is roughly 1.5–2 months of inventory (balanced market = 5–6 months). That’s why prices remain strong even with 6–7% mortgage rates.

The data is crystal clear: Connecticut’s housing market since 2021 has been defined by one thing — not enough homes for sale. The 2008 crisis was too much supply; today is the exact opposite.

You now have the full picture from the three core SmartMLS graphs:

1. Prices (what happened)
2. New Listings (why supply came in)
3. Homes for Sale (what buyers actually see)